Message from CaptainSMG

Hi all,

* First and foremost, I hope that for those of you who have followed our telegram channel since Day 1 (16 June 2016) would have benefited and profited from our stock sharing. For new joiners, please feel welcomed here. Our main objective in SMG is to share only short - medium - long term stocks listed in Bursa Malaysia.

Short-term: Upto 1month
Medium-term: Upto 6 months
Long-term: above 6 months

* Some of you might have noticed that we were less active in 2 month back and many people thought that we have stopped giving stock calls in October. No, We are still around. The reasons why we were quite then were due to expectation of jittery market condition contributed from internal & external development. Another reason was that we were busy re-positioning our stock portfolios in view of market uncertainties like the US election 2016 in Nov and also upcoming FOMC meeting which is middle of December.

* Our portfolio is quite lean now and we are ready to reposition a new portfolio going into a fresh new year of 2017. If you guys have noticed, we made a few stock calls in the beginning of December for counters that retraced at least 30 - 40% from its 2016 peak such as DRB, Datasonic, and FGV with the exceptions of POS Malaysia & A-Rank. The former 3s have shown a good progress except datasonic with pos Malaysia & A-rank is still trading unchanged.

* Why do we start buying in December? 

- The sell-off has all been priced-in. The implied probability of Fed Fund Rates of a rate hike in Dec 2016 is now at 100 per cent in which I believe the market is already immuned when the actual day comes. What if Fed does not increase the interest rate? Yes, we will see the money flowing back to EM again. (The Implied Probability above is based on fed fund futures trading direction and market sentiment and it does not represent the actual Fed's decision).

- Cheap Valuations: 30-50% down from 2016 high on DRB, FGV, Dsonic and a few more others.

- Cheap MYR Valuations:  BNM has introduced numerous measures to support MYR including preventing offshore NDF tradings, making 75% of foreign currency proceeds to be converted into MYR a compulsory and many more. This move I am sure will provide a level of support to our MYR to a certain level.


* This channel is free by the way, and i will try to share more research reports coming from foreign investment banks. ie. JP Morgan, Nomura, UBS, Citi which I believe could be useful and almost inaccessible by retailers. I believe this is a charitable deed. I am still figuring out which is the best medium to share out these reports; e-mail or telegram or my new blog. 

*My words of advice, everyone makes mistakes, so don't follow too closely, try to judge when calls are made, don't jump into conclusion, price may go against us anytime. We can't fight the market forces but we can ride with it. The fund managers, dealers/traders and Institutional investors (company's investment team), market operators are using telegram too. 


* I do receive Private messages asking me for special buy calls, information of a company, whether I have a paid room. As mentioned before, you can message me and I will try to reply if possible since there are many queries. in telegram @CaptainSMG , but there is no paid room at the moment (pointless).


* Welcome feedbacks/suggestions.


Like our facebook too as we will post useful information from time to time



If time permits, I will try to update more in fb (not a fb literacy person) and telegram channel







Warmest Regards,
Luiki 

p/s: Do share with your friends/family members who are interested to join as well.

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